Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season
July 91C.INVEST Aol:South of Mexico Large area of convection. Some slow devlopment possible. YE 16:09, July 1, 2010 (UTC) Moved into the CPAC sevral days ago. YE 03:17, July 10, 2010 (UTC) 91C.INVEST First CPac invest of the season! (As long as you don't count the weird one in February that was straddling the equator...) It doesn't look like anything right now, but apparently it has a 20% chance. --Patteroast 09:40, July 6, 2010 (UTC) :Nevermind. It looked worse every time I looked at it, and it's not even shown as an AoI on the CPHC anymore. --Patteroast 18:18, July 7, 2010 (UTC) ::Gone from NRL. YE 03:15, July 10, 2010 (UTC) 06E.NONAME Aol:Near Central America On Alt TWO, devlopemt possible. 03:26, July 10, 2010 (UTC) 96E.INVEST Invest'd. Some of the models make this Estelle. --Patteroast 03:58, July 12, 2010 (UTC) Seemes to be faaling apart, but we will see. Latest TWO says. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. YE 14:02, July 12, 2010 (UTC) :Looks like a more concentrated center's coming out of this mess. NHC's got it up to 50% risk. --Patteroast 11:33, July 14, 2010 (UTC) :TWO says this. 000 ABPZ20 KNHC 141740 TWOEP TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 1100 AM PDT WED JUL 14 2010 FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY AROUND A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER MUSHER :Wow! EPac sure heating back up. YE 18:00, July 14, 2010 (UTC) Tropical Depression Six-E Should be short-lived. YE 21:04, July 14, 2010 (UTC) :Forecast to become Estelle briefly. --Patteroast 21:08, July 14, 2010 (UTC) ::NHC says THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING 25-30 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR FOR THE PAST 2 DAYS...AND THIS CONDITION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. ALTHOUGH THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION HAS ERODED SOMEWHAT DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...THERE WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY NOT BE SUSTAINED UNTIL THE SHEAR DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. BUT BY THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATER...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO KEEP THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL STORM. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS. ::Not goona happen. YE 21:19, July 14, 2010 (UTC) :::Weakened, no longer forecast to reach storm strength. --Patteroast 08:06, July 16, 2010 (UTC) ::: :::Gone. YE ::: AoI:1400 miles for Baja Latest TWO says. A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1400 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PERSISTED FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS... ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. YE 14:03, July 12, 2010 (UTC) :Poof. YE 13:54, July 13, 2010 (UTC) AoI:Near Central Mexico No mention on Two, but I believe this is a mistake. Conditions are marginally favorable if this system remains south. Look impressive today. YE 17:13, July 25, 2010 (UTC) :Still, no mention. YE 18:42, July 25, 2010 (UTC) ::Agreed, should be mentioned, Looks impressive. Stll a tropcial wave though. 23:36, July 25, 2010 (UTC) :::Less organized now. YE 14:52, July 26, 2010 (UTC) ::::Merged with 97E. YE 21:47, July 27, 2010 (UTC) :::::Nevermind. Still out there put a piece of garbage. It is going poof. YE 02:18, July 28, 2010 (UTC) ::::::It is history. YE 14:13, July 28, 2010 (UTC) 97E.INVEST AoI:Near Colima Looks impressive. No mention on TWO. YE 14:54, July 26, 2010 (UTC) 97E.INVEST? NHC has a floater on it but for some reason titled "Not active". Could this become Estelle before the end of the moth? YE 14:57, July 26, 2010 (UTC) :Poof. YE 1:14, July 27, 2010 (UTC) ::Looks better organized. Vary large. YE 17:54, July 27, 2010 (UTC) :::Not anymore. YE 18:03, July 27, 2010 (UTC) ::::Nevermind, there is a lot of convection. However, the convection is isolated and somewhat disorganized. The is system is huge, could develop into two or three tropical cyclones. YE 02:07, July 28, 2010 (UTC) :::::Better organized now, still no mention on TWO. YE 14:14, July 28, 2010 (UTC) AoI:Near Costa Rica Looks impressive on visible imagery. No mention on TWO of course. YE 02:16, July 28, 2010 (UTC) :Mentioned on TWO. It says A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH OF GUATEMALA IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. YE 00:16, July 29, 2010 (UTC) ::Down to 10% percent. YE 13:16, July 29, 2010 (UTC) :::This the same thing as 97E? --Patteroast 12:40, July 30, 2010 (UTC) ::::Nope, 97E was likely a test. YE 19:43, July 30, 2010 (UTC) 97E.INVEST The most I'm seeing out of this on any of the models I'm looking at is a strong tropical storm. --Patteroast 12:40, July 30, 2010 (UTC) :Looks extremely impressive, dont see why this is at 10%. IMO, it should be at 60% at least. YE 14:17, July 31, 2010 (UTC) :::97 looks promising, but it's too far to the west right now to be much more than a depression, I think. Syntheticalconnections (talk)( ) 23:02, 30 July 2010 (UTC) ::::IMO, 97E is fairly east to where most storms developed last year. Its almost August so anything is possible. YE [[2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] 23:41, 30 July 2010 (UTC) My bad. I was looking at what seems to be a more organized storm to the west of 97E. It looks a bit better than yesterday... Still looks like a mess. Syntheticalconnections (talk)( ) 18:17, 31 July 2010 (UTC) ::Darn, NHC has ended this system. STUPID TROPICS. YE 20:57, July 31, 2010 (UTC) :::Gone from TWO. Atomic7732 06:20, August 1, 2010 (UTC) 92C.INVEST AoI: South of Hawaii Mentioned on TWO! Could this end the dry spell at last? YE :Darn, it went by-bye. No loner on the TWO. YE 00:17, July 29, 2010 (UTC) ::Back. YE 13:16, July 29, 2010 (UTC) :::Mentioned on TWO. YE ::::Yeah... but given a 0% chance of development. --Patteroast 12:40, July 30, 2010 (UTC) :::::20% now. Could this become Omkea? YE 14:18, July 31, 2010 (UTC) ::::::40%. Yikes. YE 02:30, August 1, 2010 (UTC) :::::::It's looking good. Atomic7732 03:54, August 1, 2010 (UTC) 92C.INVEST TCFA per JTWC. :D Bring it Omeka, and don't kill Hawai'i. Atomic7732 04:09, August 1, 2010 (UTC) :Hmm. Models seem to mostly keep it well south of Hawaii, but some head right for it. Could be very interesting! --Patteroast 06:45, August 1, 2010 (UTC) ::20% now, will likely be like Lana if it develops. YE 15:00, August 1, 2010 (UTC) :::Still looks good, TCFA is still up. Atomic7732 17:24, August 1, 2010 (UTC) ::::Down to 10%. Looks like it might have missed its window to form... --Patteroast 18:36, August 1, 2010 (UTC) :::::I wouldn'be so sure... take a look here. It's still very well organised. CPHC, stop cutting down 92C's confidence!!! Atomic7732 18:41, August 1, 2010 (UTC) ::::::Agreed. This could be a TD tonight. YE 19:13, August 1, 2010 (UTC) :::::::Hmm. It's had another burst of organization and is back up to a 30% chance. Either way, the models seem to pretty consistently miss Hawaii now. --Patteroast 03:17, August 2, 2010 (UTC) 98E Invest Aol:South of Baja AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SOCORRO ISLAND OR ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE BEFORE IT MOVES WESTWARD OVER COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. This system reminds me of Hector. YE 02:29, August 1, 2010 (UTC) :Doesn't look like much at this point. Still at 10% chance per NHC. --Patteroast 06:45, August 1, 2010 (UTC) ::Poof. 0% now. Shoot. YE 03:39, August 2, 2010 (UTC) 98E Invest Put it up on my blog. YE 04:14, August 2, 2010 (UTC) August Aol:over Honduras/Nicaragua Not on TWO, looks very good. GFS had a weak tropical storm popping up from that area the other day. GFDL or HWRF had it the other day too (just not as a focused on storm). Worthy of note. Atomic7732 04:00, August 1, 2010 (UTC) :it is in a hostile environment sadly. YE 14:58, August 1, 2010 (UTC) ::That's actually the main system that is part of the 10% probability on the Atlantic side. TWO says A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS UNLIKELY BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. C'mon become Estelle. YE 04:02, August 2, 2010 (UTC) Retirements at a glance Right now, based on Agatha's death update (146), I want to give it a 95-100% chance of retirement. Does anyone else have guesses on Agatha's chances? 22:35, May 31, 2010 (UTC) :It certainly would look like a good bet, but EPac retirements are so rare and all-over-the-map that I'm not willing to give even Agatha more than a 50% chance. It's certainly deserving, though. --Patteroast 17:09, June 21, 2010 (UTC) Why not? This storm is NOT like Alma 2 years ago, which, IMO, had virtually NO chance of retirement. Agatha, on the other hand, is like an EPac Allison, the THIRD most destructive EPac storm on record, as well as the 5TH deadliest. That's bad enough for me. 02:37, June 22, 2010 (UTC) :It's not so much that I think that Agatha's not worthy of retirement... it absolutely is, and should be retired. It's just, looking at the list of retired EPac storms, I don't feel entirely confident that retirement choices will make any sense. Then again, I hope I'm wrong. Most of the really bad misses were a couple decades ago. --Patteroast 08:15, June 22, 2010 (UTC) Well, I can cope with you on that. Fico, Fefa, Knut, and Iva(prob. retired to avoid confusion with I'w'a), were all retired for unknown causes. Agatha will be retired by the same standards as storms like Pauline and Iniki were. Other storms, like 2002's Kenna, were retired, but Lane in 2006 wasn't, for 2x the damage, too. But Agatha isn't Kenna or Lane. It's a big league storm, and it's an obvious case on retirement. The WMO will probrably be serious on Agatha just like they were on Allison in the Atlantic, and a less destructive Pacifc example, 2008's Alma. 03:15, June 23, 2010 (UTC) :Hope you're right! --Patteroast 05:16, June 23, 2010 (UTC) : :i think Agatha will be retired. 20:09, June 30, 2010 (UTC) Creepy comparison So far the storm's '''titles' (NOT CATEGORIES) have been the same as the previous season with these names (2004). Both had Tropical Storm Agatha. Both had Tropical Depression Two, afterwards. Both had Tropical Storm Blas third. Both had Hurricane Celia after. Both had a Hurricane Darby fifth. And now, it looks like Tropical Depression Six doesn't want to become Estelle... Syntheticalconnections (talk)( ) 20:21, 15 July 2010 (UTC) ::Also, Darby 2004 and 2010 reached the same intensity. We also have 97E, and we could have 983 and 99E in a couple days. YE [[2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] 19:54, 30 July 2010 (UTC) :Um, not to be mean or anything, but can we keep all non-related posts somewhere else like the IRC or Hurricane Wiki. Wikipedia talkpages are for discussing how to improve the article, not a general discussion. 'Darren23' | 18:28, 31 July 2010 (UTC) ::This one? Syntheticalconnections (talk)( ) 18:42, 31 July 2010 (UTC) :::Yes, but I really dont think what harm does it do making a comparison to 2004 and 2010. After all this is about the 2010 Pacific hurricane season. Anyhow, 97E is becoming toast sadly. YE [[2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] 20:51, 31 July 2010 (UTC) ::::Sadly? Finally someone who favors the development. Yeah, it's only minor cloud strands, just giving us a hint it's there. (syntheticalconnections)Atomic7732 21:24, July 31, 2010 (UTC) Mid-season Predictions What are you mid-season predictions. I think we will end up being 10-6-5. YE 04:06, August 2, 2010 (UTC)